One year ago, it seemed almost inevitable that the two presidential candidates facing off through the summer of 2016 into November, would be Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Whether you liked it or not, the narrative was going to be about these two destined aspirants hoping to continue a past political dynasty, or lay claim to new one.
Last week after the South Carolina Republican primary, Bush dropped out of the race. His poll numbers only continued to dwindle, and it soon became a matter of time before his fate was realized. Although he lasted until February, Bush’s coup de grace truly came only a day after he declared.
On June 16, 2015, along came businessman Donald Trump, with charisma, a catchy slogan, and an ability to energize the conservative base. Frankly, these were three things that Bush did not have in his arsenal, and that played a part in his rapid demise. Trump soon became the frontrunner, and it was the year of the anti-establishment candidate.
Michael Hagen, a Political Science professor at Temple University, offers his view on how unpredictable both the Republican and Democratic races have been. While it may seem that both races have had some interesting twists and turns, one is vastly more unforeseeable than the other.
“The Republican race is more unusual, though more for the identities, assets, and styles of the candidates than for the structure of the contest.” Hagen says. “If [Trump’s] competitors can keep raising funds and stay in the race, that might produce a truly unprecedented contest.”
The Democratic race has seen the emergence of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, whose attempts to spark a political revolution have been met with unprecedented success. Beyond that, Hagen acknowledges “it’s rare for a front-runner who’s not an incumbent president to go unchallenged. The usual pattern is for a front-runner to emerge early and then a challenger to emerge, then fade.”
Sanders has proven to be formidable so far, but it remains to be seen how long he can last against the former First Lady. “I would be surprised if either race is still in doubt at the end of March, but I’m prepared to be surprised,” Hagen says. The second part of that sentence encapsulates this whole election season. The only thing that is predictable is that the rest of the race will be unpredictable.
The charisma and freshness of Trump and Sanders have, more than anything, given the electorate something to think about. They are offering a prodigious challenge to the status quo, and have forced their opponents in that direction.
The vitriolic rhetoric that has been present in the race, notably on the Republican side, is generally considered to be used heavily in primaries, and in moderation during the general election. Hagen does not believe this will be as prominent a trend as in elections past, saying that “presidential campaigns now seem to devote more resources to mobilizing the party faithful than to persuading (the shrinking number of) swing voters.” He does concede however, that both eventual nominees will likely “try to shift voter impressions of them toward the center one way or another.
Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio all believe they can become the next president of the United States. The path for some may be tougher than others, but if there is one thing we have learned during this election season, it is this: Expect to be surprised, because more twists are bound to be in store in the coming months.