The freak show we knew as the California Recall Election is now over, and as predicted, former actor and seven-time Mr. Olympia, Arnold Schwarzenegger will be the 38th Governor of that state by Thanksgiving. Now the real fun begins.

Schwarzenegger now finds himself the steward of a state that would be the fifth most powerful nation on Earth if it were independent. And it is a state in serious trouble.

During the tenure of now-outgoing Governor Gray Davis, the Golden State has seen electricity blackouts due to problems with deregulation (to be fair, a problem Davis inherited but also made much worse through inept mismanagement), ridiculously inflated car registration and tuition taxes, and a deficit that is spinning out of control (and Davis doesn’t have a War on Terror to blame for this the way Bush does).

It was the car taxes that put the final nail in Davis’ coffin. Schwarzenegger has vowed to repeal them the minute he takes office. How, then, will Schwarzenegger solve the budget crisis in California?

You would think that this question is important only to those who live in that state, but you would be wrong. Why?

Simple. California is the most populous state in the union. As such, it has the most Electoral Votes (55, and you only need 270 to win) in a presidential election, the next one of which is next year. As a general rule, the candidate that wins California winds up in the White House. There are exceptions to this rule (like Al Gore, who won California in 2000, but only managed to win 19 other states, not including his own), but for the most part, California is such a huge prize that it cannot be ignored.

So, the Republicans stand a much better chance of re-electing Bush if they can take California. Arnold’s victory might help this dramatically…or, it might not.

How?

First, the Democrats said, at various “no recall” rallies, that the problems in California were in fact Bush’s fault. If Arnold were to solve the budget problems out there, he would prove the Democrats wrong. On the flip side, assuming Bush was responsible for California’s fortunes, that would mean that if Arnold could solve the problems, than it was obviously with the help of Bush’s policies. The Democrats may have painted themselves into a corner on this one.

Conversely, if Arnold were not successful, he could safely claim that as the only major Republican in the state government, his hands are tied by obstructionist Democrats bitter about the recall; he won the battle but wasn’t allowed to win the war.

Second, Arnold’s victory gives the Republicans hope that the state has rejected Democrat tax-and -spend policies. As Bill Clinton told the first George Bush back in 1992, “We tried it your way, and it didn’t work. It’s time to change.”

Arnold will likely attempt to solve the budget crisis by having auditors review the state’s budget books, as he has also promised to do numerous times, spotlight the wasteful programs, and eliminate them, thus saving money and reducing the debt without raising taxes. If this works, this would give every Republican politician a lifetime supply of ammunition against Democrat contentions that tax-raising is necessary.

Admittedly, that is a huge “if”. It could backfire as well. But if it works, the GOP will suddenly become very popular in a place where “Republican” is traditionally a dirty word.

A good test of this new Republican goodwill will come in the 2004 election. Bush will try to be the first Republican to win California since his father did it in 1988. In other races, Senator Barbara Boxer, whose daughter was once married to Hillary Clinton’s brother, is up for re-election.

California Republicans would love to send Boxer packing as well, especially since the GOP holds on to the Senate right now by a very thin margin, and several Republicans have announced that they are retiring. Boxer’s defeat would help their cause, and coupled with a Bush win, would puncture the notion that Republicans cannot win there.

On FOX News Channel’s “Beltway Boys” on October 11, co-host Fred Barnes mentioned some of these points and others. I took those points to a political expert, Dr. Larry Sabato, professor and Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He had differences with some of what Barnes had said.

Where Barnes mentioned that Bush would be competitive in California next year with the help of Arnold, Sabato said that Bush might only get a little help. “If the race is close, “said Sabato, “Arnold can add a point or two.” Sabato further added that Bush’s best chance of winning California will come when the situation in Iraq begins to turn around, but mostly when the economy begins to turn around.

How many jobs would it take? Bush would get a boost “only if jobs are created in the hundreds of thousands,” said Sabato. He added that the recent growth figures of 57,000 jobs would not be nearly enough.

As for Senator Boxer, while Barnes feels that she is vulnerable, Sabato disagrees, saying he has heard this all before. “They say this all the time, and she always wins big.”

Barnes further contended on his show that the recall election had shown that attack politics had failed.

“But they’ll be back,” countered Sabato.

The bottom line, said Sabato, is that right now, it is simply too early to tell if Arnold’s win will help Bush next year. In the end, Bush’s chances of winning California rest with Bush himself…but he would love to be successful in California, and Arnold could be the difference in a close race.