For the first month of the season, the Phillies have underachieved fan expectations. At the
moment, it seems like no part of their game is functioning in the way it should, but how long will
it stay like this? The game of baseball is unpredictable, but here’s my estimation of how different
areas of the team will pan out.
Starting Pitching
Starting out with arguably the strongest part of the team, the starting pitching has
provided most of the excitement to start the season this year. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez,
and Phillies newcomer Jesús Luzardo have had incredibly strong starts to the season, holding the
fort down and adding some stability to the team.
Based from their past seasons, there is no reason to believe that each pitcher’s production will
tail off at any point in the season. The Phillies also have some starting pitchers that are not so
hot.
Taijuan Walker never really had a good season with the Phillies, but in his third season with the
team this year, it looked like things might change after turning in two scoreless outings.
Unfortunately, Walker seemed to return to old habits after giving up six runs in one inning versus
the San Francisco Giants.
Though his season so far hasn’t been as explosive, outings like that do not provide a ton of
confidence for his season moving forward. However, Walker’s job in the rotation could only last
so long, as Ranger Suárez is due to come back from injury soon and top prospect Andrew Painter
is projected to join the team sometime in the summer.
With either of those things coming to fruition, Walker’s role may not end up being big enough to
have a massive impact on the team.
Aaron Nola is another pitcher who has not started off so hot. Nola is kind of an anomaly.
Throughout all of his years with the team, you still have no idea what you’re going to get from
him with each start. That being said, there are ways for him to turn his season around.
In each of Nola’s starts this season, he has been caught by backup catcher Rafael Marchán, not
starting catcher J.T. Realmuto. The lack of familiarity there may be a major part of Nola’s
pitching woes, as Nola has historically worked well with Realmuto in the past. Nola in his career
has also never had any truly disastrous numbers, so there is optimism for his start so far being an
early season hiccup and nothing more.
Offense/Defense
After seeing how the Phillies seasons ended in the postseason these last 3 years, it is very
concerning to see the offense in a slump like they were at the end of last year. The players in the
lineup are practically the same, with the only new player being outfielder Max Kepler.
Even though it is early in the season, it is more than fair to be concerned with the streakiness of
the Phillies offense considering the precedent from the last three seasons. That being said, there
has been a spark within the past few weeks.
After struggling in the first few games, Bryson Stott has thrived in the leadoff position. 1-5 in the
batting order consisting of Stott, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick
Castellanos is lethal, and they’ve been incredible as of late. Schwarber, in particular, has had an
unbelievable start to the season and hopefully will have his contract extended sometime soon.
Kepler following Castellanos has also been beneficial, as he provides good contact and gets on
base pretty often. Realmuto being in the bottom half of the lineup has also been good for the
team. He doesn’t have as much offense as he used to, but he’s still one of the best hitting catchers
in baseball, and having him get less at bats at the bottom of the order will likely help preserve his
energy for the season.
Bohm has also started to turn things around after his dreadful start to the season, but he has
always been very hot and cold, so it's best to keep him where he’s at in the eight slot. Marsh is
one player that is very concerning. He still has very undisciplined at bats, strikes out a ton, and is
seemingly unable to hit off of left handed pitchers. Perhaps the team will consider a stint in the
minor leagues to help regain his confidence and fix whatever is wrong right now, but regardless,
not being what he used to leaves a big gap on the team.
Johan Rojas, on the other hand, has been the exact opposite. Considering they play the same
position in center field, hopefully he has solidified himself in the starting position once Marsh
comes back from injury. Having a right handed bat who can bunt, make contact, and play great
defense is what this team needs.
Overall, this offense is capable of doing great things, and they’re doing it now, but whether they
can maintain it and not go into month-long slumps is still to be seen.
Defensively, it has honestly been quite good. Stott and Harper are putting together gold glover
caliber seasons, Realmuto and Marchán lead the league in caught steals, and everyone else has
played very solid. Out of everything on the team, the defense is easily the least worrying.
Bullpen
The bullpen is an absolute mess. One of the biggest mistakes of the offseason was letting
Jeff Hoffman walk, and the Phillies are paying for it now. José Alvarado has filled in the closer
positon excellently, but he’s about one of two relievers that would get a positive review right
now.
Alvarado and Matt Strahm are just about the only two reliable arms in the pen, with Orion
Kerkering not too far behind them. Everyone else is incredibly unpredictable or are not high
leverage arms.
Guys like Tanner Banks and José Ruiz do just fine in their roles as low leverage pitchers, but the
entire bullpen cannot be low leverage. Joe Ross has had flashes but has mostly been inconsistent.
Jordan Romano has also had a good inning or two but has absolutely blown up in majority of his
outings.
The Phillies have put themselves into a position where they have to use their best arms every
single game if they do not want to risk a loss, and that is completely unsustainable across a 162-
game season. If they don’t trade for an arm in the next couple months, the bullpen could put their
playoff aspirations in serious jeopardy.
Regardless of the Phillies’ woes, they still maintain a good record and are, as of now,
second in the NL East. But how much of that is due to the quality of competition? And with the
quality of other divisions like the NL West, can the Phillies even make the playoffs without a
division win? These are all valid concerns when it comes to the outlook of this team.
The bullpen is something that can’t see a turnaround without some major changes. On the bright
side, that is the only part of the team that needs major changes. The Phillies haven’t been too
trigger happy with trades in the past few years, though, and if they don’t shake things up, the
team won’t survive.
It’s not too early to be worried about the team, but it’s also not too late to have optimism either.
After the trade deadline, we’ll have our answer on the team's future.