With the 2008 election upon
us, Republicans are hoping to
keep the White House while
Democrats look to regain it.
It appears as though
Arizona Sen. John McCain
has all but secured the
Republican presidential nomination.
Mitt Romney has
thrown in the towel and Mike
Huckabee looks to be too far
behind to have a chance.
With McCain basically
etched in as the Republican
candidate, we can begin to
analyze which of the
Democratic candidates would
do better against the moderate
Vietnam War veteran.
With popular candidates
like Illinois Sen. Barack
Obama and New York Sen.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, the
Democrats seem to feel like
they have a good chance of
reclaiming the White House.
In the most recent Time
Magazine poll, which took
place from Feb. 1-4 and pitted
each Democratic candidate
against McCain, Clinton and
McCain tied at around 46 percent
of the vote.
In the same poll Obama has
a resounding lead over
McCain, capturing 48 percent
of the vote to McCain’s 41
percent.
According to this poll, it
looks as though Obama has a
preliminary lead over
McCain.
But at this stage, it might
just be too early to make the
call.
Do you recall when Obama
was trailing Clinton by 20
percent not long ago?
Or do you remember how
McCain was in single digits
in November?
Polls can change like the
weather. Not to mention that
polls, such as the one Time
reported, can have high margins
of error and only represent
a fraction of the population.
A better way to seek out
information, instead of polls,
could be to talk to political
analysts about their take on
the situation.
Dr. Ray O’Brien, a social
sciences professor at Bucks,
had his own insight on the
race.
When asked which of the
two Democratic candidates
have the best chance of winning
the professor responded,
“Obama. There’s something
about Hillary that turns
Independents off. If she is
running against McCain in
the fall, I believe McCain will
win. With Obama, the
Democrats have an inspirational
leader that can reach
out to Independents, conservatives,
and young voters.”
O’Brien’s comments ring
true with what most of the
pundits are saying: Obama
will have a better chance of
winning in the general election
over Clinton.
Bucks student Stacy
Armstrong agrees with the
professor. “I think that having
Clinton as the nominee
would set the party back to
where it was in 2000; it will be
back with a polarizing candidate
who will try to win solely
on the Democratic voters in
the north and west. With
Obama, the Democrats have a
chance of winning in states
they could never dream of
winning.”
While this is a popular theory,
it is not reflected in most
polls, which show both
Clinton and Obama losing
most of the usual Republican
stronghold states.
Ravi Patel believes that
despite his support for
Obama, Clinton is the person
to beat in November.
“She may be struggling
now, but I never count out a
Clinton. Everyone counted
Bill out in 1992, and he won
two terms. Everyone counted
her out after Iowa, and she
won New Hampshire and
Nevada. She can still pull it
off,” said Patel. “The
Republicans are going to
throw the book at whoever
the Democratic candidate is.
They are going to be crushed
by negative ads and bad publicity.
Hillary and Bill Clinton
have overcome these things
to come out smelling like a
rose before. I think they can
again.”
With the Pennsylvania primary
election on April 22, it is
truly too close to call on
which Democratic candidate
stand the best chance against
McCain.
Whichever candidate comes
out on top, come Jan. 20, 2009,
one of them will stand in
front of thousands of spectators
and accept the oath of
office as the next president.