There’s still about five
months until the Republican
convention, but Arizona Sen.
John McCain has one huge
question to answer. Who will
be his vice presidential running
mate?
The presumptive
Republican nominee for president
has a tough decision on
his hands. A strong choice for
VP can make or break a ticket,
especially in an election as
close as 2008 is expected to
be. But what exactly goes into
choosing a vice president?
Bucks Social Science
Professor Ray O’Brien
believes that it’s all about
electability.
“When choosing a vice
president, a candidate always
has to look into the electability
factors. Whomever you
choose has to improve your
chances of getting elected or
it’s a useless pick because
vice presidents really have
limited power once they
achieve office.”
So what are these “electability
factors?” Larry Sabato,
director for the University of
Virginia Center for Politics,
has created a distinct list of
what factors are important.
First, the nominee should
do no harm to the ticket. You
don’t want to pick a VP who
has scandals swarming
around his every move.
Second, the candidate
should be able to carry
his/her home state. It’s even
better if the presidential nominee
were unlikely to win the
state without choosing that
person as VP.
Third, the VP should help
unify the party by being from
another faction than the presidential
nominee. By this
method, since McCain has
portrayed himself as a moderate,
he should choose a conservative
candidate that
could reel in the right wing.
Finally, McCain likely
needs to choose a younger
candidate to offset his own
age of 72 against the likes of
Sen. Barack Obama, who is
46.
When Sen. John Kerry
chose Sen. John Edwards as
his running mate in 2004, it
was because of Edwards’
likeability and the fact that he
hailed from the southern state
of North Carolina.
Unfortunately for the
Democrats, Edwards didn’t
have enough support in his
home region to offset
President Bush’s evangelical
base. This was an example of
a VP candidate failing his
ticket.
There are a few candidates
that have too many weaknesses
or add too little to the
ticket to be seriously considered.
Former Presidential
candidate and Arkansas Gov.
Mike Huckabee appeals to
social conservatives, but his
appeal ends there.
Mississippi Gov. Haley
Barbour is a strong conservative
who could potentially
warm the south to McCain.
However, he may be too conservative
for the rest of the
country, ruining McCain’s
chances of grabbing key
Democratic states.
Finally, Sen. Lindsay
Graham of South Carolina is
a McCain backer and friend
with plenty of experience and
appeal. However, he adds
nothing electorally and has
irritated many conservatives
with a position similar to
McCain’s on immigration.
So, who should McCain
choose as his VP? There are
four top contenders as of
now, and all of them have
their strengths and weaknesses.
Former presidential candidate
and Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney was a bitter
rival of McCain just a few
months ago, but now, with
the Republican nomination
locked up, the two are on
seemingly good terms.
Romney campaigned for
McCain last week in Utah,
and has shown that he is able
to bury the hatchet with the
senator. Romney’s strengths
are that he is well-liked by
conservatives and that he has
the presidential aura.
However, he is a robotic
speaker, comes from
Massachusetts – a liberal
state that the GOP is unlikely
to win – and is a Mormon,
something that may be
unpopular with evangelical
Christians. Romney is the
only former presidential contender
who has a viable
chance of being chosen as VP.
Next on the list is Florida
Gov. Charlie Crist. He is a
well-liked moderate who
hails from one of the most
crucial states in the Electoral
College. McCain owes him a
bit of gratitude after Crist
endorsed him prior to the
crucial Florida primary.
However, Crist was just elected
in 2006, so his lack of experience
could come in play. He
also has had to play off
rumors that he is a homosexual,
something that doesn’t
exactly warm evangelicals.
South Carolina Gov. Mark
Sanford has long been considered
a strong choice for
McCain. He’s a solid southern
conservative with executive
and legislative experience.
He even backed McCain
back in 2000 during his first
presidential run. However,
Sanford, like Lindsay
Graham, adds absolutely
nothing electorally and has a
controversial record when it
comes to conservatives.
Finally, Minnesota Gov.
Tim Pawlenty could be a very
strong choice for McCain.
Pawlenty is young, 47, the
national co-chair of McCain’s
campaign, and his state is the
only state to go Democratic in
the last eight presidential
elections. With the emphasis
put these days on the
Electoral College and on
youthful vigor, Pawlenty
offers plenty to any ticket.
The only possible weakness
for Pawlenty is that he might
not be able to carry
Minnesota after barely winning
reelection in 2006.
Whatever the choice, it’s
clear that each and every possible
running mate is going to
have weaknesses. Romney,
Crist, Sanford, and Pawlenty
each hold their own strengths
to share with McCain. It now
will fall upon McCain to
decide which of these
strengths he wants to capture.
With just five months until
the Republican Convention, it
won’t be long before voters
find out.