Just weeks remain in the
race for the White House. A
year-and-a-half of campaigning
comes down to one final
sprint for Democratic candidate
Barack Obama and
Republican candidate John
McCain.
For most of the year, the
major news networks talked
about national polls and who
was leading among all the
registered voters in the country.
However, as any stout
political activist knows, we
don’t elect presidents via a
national popular vote.
Instead, it’s the Electoral
College that decides the victor.
The Electoral College is a
group of electors who cast
their votes for the winner of
the popular vote in their
state. Each state has a predetermined
number of electors
based on population. Each
state’s electoral vote number
is the same as the number of
U.S. Representatives and U.S.
Senators from the state. For
example, Pennsylvania has 19
Representatives and two
Senators. Therefore, there are
21 electoral votes in
Pennsylvania. That’s why
“swing states” are the states
with a high population.
Alaska is large, but has few
residents compared to a
much smaller, geographically
speaking, state like New
York. These states, which are
high in population and therefore
electoral votes, can
swing the election one way or
another if it’s a close call.
This election is unique
because the state of the nation
and Obama’s
candidacy allows
many typically
R e p u b l i c a n
states, or red
states, to be in
play. States such
as Virginia,
North Carolina,
Colorado and
Indiana are all
considered swing
states this year
despite the fact
that they’ve voted
predominantly
Republican the
past 40 years.
This brings us
to the state of the
race. In order to
win the election,
a candidate must
receive 270 electoral
votes. As of
press time,
Obama has 264
electoral votes from states
that are either safe or lean
Democratic. These include all
the states John Kerry won in
2004 along with the Bush
states of New Mexico and
Iowa.
Barring any cataclysmic
gaffe by the Obama campaign,
these states are likely
to go for the Democrats. This
means that they would need
just six electoral votes in
order to win the election.
As for McCain, he’s likely to
capture most of the South and
Upper Midwest. However,
capturing any of the Kerry
states from 2004 fell by the
wayside when his campaign
announced they were pulling
out of Michigan last week.
This leaves his campaign
with 174 electoral votes.
After all of the safe and lean
states are counted, that leaves
the swing states-or battleground
states. According to
CNN, these states include
Ohio, Virginia, North
Carolina, Missouri, Colorado,
Nevada and Florida. These
seven states contain 100 electoral
votes that will be the key
to the presidency.
Unfortunately for McCain,
he currently has his back up
against the wall. Due to his
inability to make inroads in
any state that went
Democratic in 2004, he is
forced to win every single
one of these seven states in
order to win the election.
Obama, on the other hand,
has to just win one of them.
The most recent polling in
these states shows slight
leads for Obama in every single
one. However, most of
these leads are too close to be
called significant.
On Nov. 4, millions of
Americans will go to the polls
knowing that their vote will
help to determine what direction
our country moves in.
Will McCain be able to pull
out the shocking victory after
having his campaign sputter
in recent weeks? Or will
Obama become the first ever
African-American President?
No matter what happens,
history will be made in the
coming weeks.